The future of the British Virgin Islands

The British Virgin Islands have been around for millions of years and many geological factors have molded these islands into what they are today.  These islands began their lives as volcanoes and eventually evolved into the tropical paradises that they are today.  The single most influential geological factor that has had the most impact on the islands is the Caribbean Sea.  From coastline erosion to weather patterns, this large body of water is manipulating almost every environmental characteristic of the BVI’s.

In ten years, the most significant factors that could potentially change the landscape of the islands would be hurricanes and tropical storms.  Rising ocean temperatures caused by the increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are not only increasing the likelihood of hurricanes in this region, but storm intensity is also escalating.  This boost in storm frequency and intensity will have a great effect on storm runoff and flooding.  These islands are also located along a plate boundary where earthquakes frequently occur.  Any one of these factors could drastically and very quickly alter the landscape of this region.  Hurricanes could kill trees and wildlife, demolish structures and leave the islands completely inhabitable and destroyed.

In the long term, between 100 and 1,000 years from now, anthropogenic factors will be of major concern.  The continued burning of fossil fuels will increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to unprecedented levels.  The atmosphere and the oceans will no longer be able to maintain equilibrium and many adverse conditions could potentially arise.  Higher levels of carbon dioxide in the Caribbean Sea could be detrimental to marine life and to the delicate coral reefs that are prevalent throughout this region.  Anegada’s stunning Horseshoe Reef could be completely destroyed if ocean’s carbon dioxide concentrations meet their projections.   Sea levels are also expected to rise 4 to 36 inches within the next 100 years.  This increase in Sea level is due to the thermal expansion of ocean water and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.  This increase in sea level will begin to erode the beaches and flood many of the coastal mangroves found throughout the BVI’s.  In a thousand years, many of the islands could be completely submerged and many others will lose substantial amounts of land.

The future of Horseshoe Reef?

            The future of the BVI’s is uncertain.  Maintaining the delicate balance between Mother Nature and human population will be of the utmost importance.  I hope that many of the grim aforementioned predictions of what the BVI’s will look like years from now will not become a reality.  It is important that we address these climate issues now and make the necessary changes to preserve places like the BVI’s for many years to come.